Mismatch between Demand and Supply among Higher Education Graduates in the EU

The misalignment between demand and supply contributes to the labour market problems experienced by many recent graduates in Europe. Not only does the growth in the number of recent university graduates differ from the growth in job vacancies potentially available for them, but also a large number of individuals end up completing their tertiary degree in subjects for which there is little demand or for which there is an excess of supply relative to demand. In an attempt to investigate whether the EU is expected to generate the appropriate number and type of graduates, this study compares projections on forecasted graduate labour market development tendencies made by Cedefop between 2016 and 2030 with estimated trends in the supply of tertiary graduates during the same period. The analysis predicts that, while a rough balance between graduate demand and supply is likely to emerge at aggregate level, there will be a small surplus of graduates in the fields of ICT and a more relevant one in Science and Engineering. Results, however, significantly differ across individual EU Member States.

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